Mass Gatherings causing Spike in CV19 Cases?

linkshouse

linkshouse

Full Member

Messages
282
Let me first say that I do understand and agree with the danger of mass gatherings etc.

But...

We have seen some really extreme examples recently what with BLM protests, beach invasions, and street parties etc.

What I haven’t seen, unless I’ve missed it, are any news items linking specific example of CV19 case spikes with any of these events.

To be sure we’ve heard the condemnation and the predictions of the dire consequences, but not any actual evidential links.

Now, as I said at the start of my post, I’m not trying to suggest that there is no risk, or to undermine the notion.

I just would have thought that the direct consequences of these gatherings, either good or bad, would have been reported to strengthen or weaken the argument either way.

Phill
 
It can take the virus up to 14 days to do it’s thing. Younger people especially may be asymptomatic (creating another time lag if they pass it on) and unless you go to the doc/hospital/report on an app/get tested if you think you’ve got it the powers that be don’t know.
 
Last edited:
Well, there are spikes for a reason, and the easiest way to transmit the infection to others is to be In close proximity to people who may have the virus, giving it an increased ability to jump to a new host.
Contagious viruses can’t spread if they don’t find new hosts.
 
We are being slowly released from lockdown. Why .
Herd immunity is the only way now. And hospitals are fully ready with thousands of beds and ppe and ventilation machines. If needed .
Slow release is happening so the nhs is not over stretched.
Mass gathering will over load the system.
 
I think there are a few reasons why places like food processing plants are seeing an increase in infections.
They are generally indoors and kept cool and damp, so are perfect places for the virus to linger and spread. They are usually noisy and people tend to shout or get closer to colleagues to make themselves heard, which can increase the spread of infected droplets.
And then, these workers are usually migrants who are poorly paid and worry more about keeping their jobs than reporting symptoms which may or may not be the first signs of Covid.
 
It was the middle of May when everyone was allowed to travel to the beach and sure enough the beaches were packed. There doesn’t seem to be any increase in cases due to that despite lots of people saying it would cause a second wave.
 
Aly1 said:
It was the middle of May when everyone was allowed to travel to the beach and sure enough the beaches were packed. There doesn’t seem to be any increase in cases due to that despite lots of people saying it would cause a second wave.
Click to expand...
I suppose that was kind of my point. There was the mad rush in May, then the BLM protests, and then various other massive infringements. They seem to have been one after the other!

If these have caused anything like the sort of increase in cases that were being predicted I would have expected the “media”to make a meal of it.

Similarly, if there has been no significant increase as a result of these gatherings I would have expected the media to make a meal of that too.

Instead, we seem to have heard nowt.

Phill
 
Who is going to mention conspiracy theory first?

opps that was me 😂😂😂😂

I will add I do not go along with conspiracy theories 👍
 
jeffmossy said:
It has just been on the news that Leicester could go back into lockdown as cases are rocketing their :eek:

www.independent.co.uk

Leicester could face first local lockdown 'within days' after coronavirus outbreak

Some 658 new cases were recorded in local area in the two weeks up to 16 June
www.independent.co.uk www.independent.co.uk
Click to expand...
Make no mistake, I don’t want to see spikes in infections any more than anyone else. It just struck me as strange that we didn’t seem to be seeing any and I couldn’t see it not being reported.

Phill
 
the cases in leicester are being linked to EID 23/25 may the 14 day incubation period is about right, end of july is the second eid alha the feast of sacrifice so more to come the four main regions showing high rates are predominately muslim i personally think they are a real asset to the city but their community is very close & supportive with large families a perfect storm for the virus
 
rugbyken said:
the cases in leicester are being linked to EID 23/25 may the 14 day incubation period is about right, end of july is the second eid alha the feast of sacrifice so more to come the four main regions showing high rates are predominately muslim i personally think they are a real asset to the city but their community is very close & supportive with large families a perfect storm for the virus
Click to expand...
Unfortunately, they are one of the high risk groups too, so infection rates would probably be higher than normal.
 
rugbyken said:
the cases in leicester are being linked to EID 23/25 may the 14 day incubation period is about right, end of july is the second eid alha the feast of sacrifice so more to come the four main regions showing high rates are predominately muslim i personally think they are a real asset to the city but their community is very close & supportive with large families a perfect storm for the virus
Click to expand...
There’s a reason for everything Ken. Reckon you’ve probably hit the nail on the head with the Festival of Eid. No racial or ethnic abuse intended. Close knit families in high density groups will always be an issue. Would be interesting to see what the figures are for places like Luton, Smethwick or Blackburn, if only to see if there’s any similarity.
 
linkshouse said:
What I haven’t seen, unless I’ve missed it, are any news items linking specific example of CV19 case spikes with any of these events.
Click to expand...
Almost impossible to determine who someone caught it from.

If you assume that 500 people mix together in one place, there is a much bigger chance of one of those 500 being infectious than if there were only five people meeting there. There are more people to share the infection with as well, so not only is likelihood higher, but the risk is also higher.

If one person has it, and they infect another* 50, who all go home and each infect their family, we're looking at 150 more people. So within a week or two, we've gone from one infection to 200 infections.

On the other hand, if none of those 500 people were infectious, no harm is done. How likely is that?...

In my local area, there have been a total of 305 confirmed cases (so probably* about 3,000 actual cases) in a population of 211.455 people over a period of three months.

Assume* that each case lasts three weeks before you are no longer infectious (or no longer alive), and the cases were all in the last three months. That'd be about* 750 currently infected people out of 200,000. That's an average of 1.77 people in a typical group of 500. But it'd probably be less than that because numbers are falling here.

Leicester is doing less well. Three times the cases in 1.5 times the population. So a typical crowd of 500 there would have over 3.5 infected people. But it's probably worse than that because of a recent surge in cases.

We'll know the effect of the mass gatherings in three or four weeks.

How lucky do you feel?

*Big assumptions warnings!
 
The twat that is city mayor in Leicester was caught visiting his girlfriend in a suburb several times then being a labour guy blames the gov !?
 
rugbyken said:
The twat that is city mayor in Leicester was caught visiting his girlfriend in a suburb several times then being a labour guy blames the gov !?
[/QUOTE
See pm
Click to expand...
 
If you are of the impression that crowds don't spread the virus - check out the USA where the numbers are going up post lockdown. The fact that Americans don't wear masks is not helping.
 
Oasis said:
If you are of the impression that crowds don't spread the virus - check out the USA where the numbers are going up post lockdown. The fact that Americans don't wear masks is not helping.
Click to expand...
I think the very first sentence in my original post says that wasn't questioning that fact. Rather, I was questioning the reporting.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Users who viewed this discussion (Total:0)

Back
Top