Spain - new quarantine imposed

[2cv]

Sorry, but that's twaddle. Cumulative has a specific meaning. It does not mean "averaged".
You can try to excuse that source as much as you like (why?), but you won't change the fact that it is just plain wrong.

For a more authoritative source to explain quarantine from Spain, see the link in post #19.

 

[in h]

I have posted a message explaining why numbers of cases in a short period is an unsatisfactory measure. I'll not write the same thing a second time.
The reality is that the unknowns exceed and swamp the knowns.
The only dependable measure is excess mortality rates.

 

[2cv]

I have posted a message explaining why numbers of cases in a short period is an unsatisfactory measure. I'll not write the same thing a second time.
The reality is that the unknowns exceed and swamp the knowns.
The only dependable measure is excess mortality rates.

The problem with that measure is it is not relevant to imposing measures to prevent infection, as you have described there is a significant time from infection occurring to death.

 

[in h]

The problem with that measure is it is not relevant to imposing measures to prevent infection, as you have described there is a significant time from infection occurring to death.

Yes indeed. That is the problem.

 

[in h]

As you seem not to have actually looked at the worldometers pages, which give the detail, here are the screen captures of the daily new infections for the UK and Spain, averaged over the last seven days.

The UK figure is 660, the Spanish figure is 1,302. So of late their infections are about twice ours.

However, their population is lower. 46.8M in Spain, 67.9M in the UK.

So average infection rates per day per hundred thousand population is 278 for Spain, 97 for the UK.

But that presupposes that we are accurately measuring infections, which we know we aren't.

Covid-19 supposedly has a mortality rate of about 1%. Well, maybe.

The UK has reported 299,426 cases and 45,752 deaths. That's a mortality rate of 15.27%
Spain has reported 319,501 cases and 28,432 deaths. That's a mortality rate of 8.90%

This suggests to me that our case numbers are grossly understated, or that our deaths are overstated.

Excess mortality figures suggest that our deaths are understated.

UK excess mortality is above 66,000, but Covid-19 deaths are 20,000 less than that.

Go figure.

I don't know the excess mortality figures for Spain.

 

[Deleted member 144]

Hi folks

No doubt you will have read that new quarantine regs have been introduced for people coming back from mainland Spain due a spike in the CV cases over there.

It got me thinking and I wanted to ask you folks what your view was of travelling/planning to travel there over the next 6 months or so?

We normally go to Spain in January for a couple of months and by now I would have it all planned/booked however so far this year I have not booked anything. Are you still planning to travel? Would you go ahead now and book places/ferry/tunnel and put down deposits?

Thanks

Graham

Well big question, we usually go to Spain etc for winter but we now have the Brexit issue and the Virus, so booking seems problematic, we only ever book a one way Ferry crossing via the CCC Dover Calais route so only that to lose money on if it goes pear shape, we just wing our trips and have never had problems, there is also the Health card to think about too E111 ? will that still be valid ? some say yes some say no some say maybe ? as we do not use campsites we never worry about booking them, plenty of Aires and wilding available, so will we go this year, YES if it seems a reasonable thing to do when we get to November when we like to depart, https://ibb.co/album/0C7bqH Plenty of stopovers like this available en route but could be closed if Virus re erupts but hey ho there will still be car parks and wilding one hopes .

 

[in h]

I don't know the excess mortality figures for Spain.

Found something!

Sorry it's so far out of date. At the end of May, Spain's excess deaths were 42,900 with Covid-19 deaths supposedly 27,709. Still looking for newer figures.

Later:

Tracking covid-19 excess deaths across countries

In many parts of the world, official death tolls undercount the total number of fatalities

www.economist.com

Spain Mar 4th-Jun 30th Covid-19 deaths 28,180 Excess deaths 43,900

 

[in h]

MADRID (Reuters) - Spain's COVID-19 death toll could be nearly 60% higher than the official figure of 28,432, according to an investigation by El Pais newspaper published on Sunday.

The country's official death toll includes only people who were formally diagnosed with the novel coronavirus, not suspected cases who were never tested.

A lack of widespread testing, particularly in the early stages of the outbreak, means the official count could underestimate the virus' toll, like in many other countries.

By counting regional statistics of all suspected and confirmed fatalities from the virus, El Pais reached a total of 44,868 deaths. If accurate, that would make Spain's outbreak the second deadliest in Europe after Britain's.

 

[GMJ]

For the last 10 yrs we've been lucky enough to be able to spend 3 mths in Spain an Portugal Dec to March last year we came home early and have been no where since and have No intention of going any where this year. If we where lucky enough to avoid the Virus what enjoyment is there with all the restrictions that are in place and possibility to worsen like the campsite that was locked down in Spain last week.
Not even safe Here

Coronavirus outbreak in Shropshire caravan park confirmed after 21 test positive

Twenty-one new cases of Covid-19 have been confirmed at a Shropshire caravan park. The council fears the number of cases at the site, which is in the town of Craven Arms, will continue to rise before infection control measures start to take effect. All residents who have come into contact with...

uk.yahoo.com

Thanks for the response. I have booked us a couple of weeks away later in Sept in the UK which will be or first trip anywhere away in thr MH since March.

I tried to search for the caravan site you mention but I think its a travellers site as the article below says it is linked to an outbreak in Welshpool at a travellers site there...

Testing confirms 21 coronavirus cases in outbreak at Shropshire caravan site

Tests have confirmed 21 cases of coronavirus in an outbreak at a Shropshire caravan site.

www.shropshirestar.com

Either way its obviously not great.

 

[in h]

I tried to search for the caravan site you mention but I think its a travellers site as the article below says it is linked to an outbreak in Welshpool at a travellers site there...

The outbreak is in a holiday caravan site, but is (possibly) linked to an outbreak at a (separate) traveller's site in the area.

 

[GMJ]

The outbreak is in a holiday caravan site, but is (possibly) linked to an outbreak at a (separate) traveller's site in the area.

Oh OK - do you know the name of the holiday campsite?

 

[in h]

We were thinking about going away somewhere, but what's the point?
All the interesting places to visit and things to do will either be closed or dangerous.
Visiting friends and family is out.
Where we live as as lovely as any place we could visit.

 

[in h]

Oh OK - do you know the name of the holiday campsite?

No, the news reports carefully avoid giving that information.

 

[GMJ]

Hmm...all the reports talk about the "residents" on the site...no mention of tourers. Also given that it has been linked to a travellers site in Welshpool and that there is a council travellers site in Craven Arms I suspect that it is indeed the travellers site and not a holiday campsite.

Edited to adf: happy to be corrected though and as I said earlier, not great either way

 

[jagmanx]

May be a "permanent fixed caravan site".
Ie not towable..they get brought in on a lorry then lifted into place, where they remain until..... ?
Then services connected.
Permanent Leccy - Like a house
2 massive calor bottles - only because mains gas not available aand more profit with calor
Sewage and grey water - Like a house

 

[in h]

You may indeed be correct. The report says:
"Shropshire Council today said that 21 residents at the Craven Arms site have now tested positive for Covid-19. The outbreak has been linked to a similar outbreak at the Leighton Arches traveller site in Welshpool."
Note the word "residents", not "visitors"

 

[GMJ]

You may indeed be correct. The report says:
"Shropshire Council today said that 21 residents at the Craven Arms site have now tested positive for Covid-19. The outbreak has been linked to a similar outbreak at the Leighton Arches traveller site in Welshpool."
Note the word "residents", not "visitors"

yes...exactly as I said in #34

 

[Deleted member 4312]

We had the Santander ferry booked for March 17th. A couple of days before we were due to sail I changed the booking to September 8th. It now looks as though we might not be getting away, other than the odd, short trip over here. At least we are both well and, as in h, are lucky enough to live in a nice part of the country.

 

[Markd]

Back to original post.
We don't know what situation will be like next January.
If you would like to go then make plans such as getting dog passport etc and travel insurance (thanks brexiteers ) shouldn't need a Visa if not more than 90 days.
You can always postpone if it doesn't look good nearer the time.

 

[Oasis]

It's the 'catching' bit that worries me most...

I had Covid-19, caught mid-March (from someone in a hospital) . I ended up having to get my husband to call 999 as I was having so much trouble breathing. Spent 10 days in hospital. The most scary part was the Resuscitation consultant coming and discussing with me what type of ventilation I would need as I have a congenital heart defect ( found March this year ) and being told that if intubated I probably would not come round due to my heart defect! PLEASE take care of yourselves - wash your hands, wear your masks and keep your distance.